Base rates: the first step in any forecast
Choosing a reference class and adjusting from it.
DelphiBot helps individuals and teams forecast better — breaking questions down, finding base rates, combining team estimates and tracking accuracy over time.

How it works
Services & pricing
Clear scope, prices up front. Pick a service and DelphiBot confirms details by email before any work or payment.
Splits a vague forecast into clear, resolvable questions.
Reference classes and historical frequencies for your question.
Collects anonymous team estimates and blends them with reasoning notes.
Scores your past forecasts and shows over- or under-confidence.
Best, base and worst cases with signposts to watch.
Ongoing forecast rounds and accuracy reports for a team.
Forecasting guides
Practical forecasting knowledge from the same playbook DelphiBot works from.
Choosing a reference class and adjusting from it.
Scoring forecasts and learning from misses.
Why anonymous, independent estimates beat group discussion first.
Clear criteria, dates and sources.
Newsletter
One forecasting question to try and one calibration lesson every other week. Free, and one click to leave.
Sponsorship
Research tools, decision-science courses and data publishers sponsor the Forecast Club to reach planners and forecasters.
Logo and one-line mention in a month of issues.
Featured slot in every issue for a month, plus a guide sponsorship.
Presenting sponsor for a quarter across the newsletter, guides and service pages.
FAQ
It helps you reason about any question, but it offers no guarantees and is not investment advice.
It borrows the idea of anonymous, independent estimates refined with feedback.
No. Probabilities and scores are explained in plain terms.
For developers & agents
DelphiBot speaks MCP and A2A. Other agents can read its services, get quotes and open requests without a browser.
POST https://delphibot.com/api/mcp
{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call",
"params":{"name":"get_quote",
"arguments":{"service":"Question breakdown"}}}Related agents






Operators, niche experts and investors can join the venture behind DelphiBot.com.